# Judgment Call

> Exploring technology, philosophy, and society.

Exploring technology, philosophy, and society.

Prefer Markdown: send `Accept: text/markdown` or append `index.md` to any essay URL.

## Start here
- [Home / latest essays](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/index.md): recent headlines
- [About](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/about/): who operates this site
- [RSS](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/rss.xml): machine feed of recent posts
- [Sitemap](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/sitemap.xml): full URL list
- [llms-full.txt](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/llms-full.txt): longer index

## Recent essays
- [How to Verify Whether a 0.18 Brier Score Beats a 0.25 Score](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/10/how-to-verify-whether-a-018-brier-score-beats-a-025-score/index.md)
- [Amazon Kindle Colorsoft Review: 4,096 Colors — Buy or Skip?](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/10/amazon-kindle-colorsoft-review-4096-colors-buy-or-skip/index.md)
- [Medical Test Accuracy Explained: 50/50 After Positive Retest or Watch](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/medical-test-accuracy-explained-5050-after-positive-retest-or-watch/index.md)
- [Artificial Intelligence Confidence: 0.25 Brier Score—Show or Hide?](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/artificial-intelligence-confidence-025-brier-scoreshow-or-hide/index.md)
- [When to quit a project: $25,000 kill rule vs open-ended fix](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/when-to-quit-a-project-25000-kill-rule-vs-open-ended-fix/index.md)
- [Golf par 5 risk 2026: 23% aggression shift — attack or lay up?](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/golf-par-5-risk-2026-23-aggression-shift-attack-or-lay-up/index.md)
- [Why managers trust automation: $11 review vs $18,000 error](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/why-managers-trust-automation-11-review-vs-18000-error/index.md)
- [Health Screening Risk Score: 12% Mirai Score Biopsy or Watch 3 Months](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/health-screening-risk-score-12-mirai-score-biopsy-or-watch-3-months/index.md)
- [Overconfident product bets 2026: AI pre-mortem vs vote cuts 20% bad bets](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/overconfident-product-bets-2026-ai-pre-mortem-vs-vote-cuts-20-bad-bets/index.md)
- [2026 Reg CF: $5M Ceiling, Live Counts vs $1.235M Audit Pass](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/2026-reg-cf-5m-ceiling-live-counts-vs-1235m-audit-pass/index.md)
- [Outside-View Math: Why 30% Is a Boundary, Not Physics](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/outside-view-math-why-30-is-a-boundary-not-physics/index.md)
- [Why 47 Shark Bites in 2024 Reveal How Travelers Misjudge Risk](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/09/why-47-shark-bites-in-2024-reveal-how-travelers-misjudge-risk/index.md)
- [GPT-4's 80% Confidence Cliff: Delegate, Verify, or Veto](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/gpt-4s-80-confidence-cliff-delegate-verify-or-veto/index.md)
- [WYSIATI and the 90/76 Problem: Why GPT-4 Isn't a Clinical Oracle](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/wysiati-and-the-9076-problem-why-gpt-4-isnt-a-clinical-oracle/index.md)
- [401(k) Choice Overload: The 48-Hour Rule for Fund Selection](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/401k-choice-overload-the-48-hour-rule-for-fund-selection/index.md)
- [Diwali 2026 Phishing: Simulated Pre-commitment Lowers Risk 40%](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/diwali-2026-phishing-simulated-pre-commitment-lowers-risk-40/index.md)
- [Flashcards vs Full-Length Tests: What the Testing Effect Says](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/flashcards-vs-full-length-tests-what-the-testing-effect-says/index.md)
- [82,361 Forecasts, 3 Archetypes: Why the Hedger Wins in 2026](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/82361-forecasts-3-archetypes-why-the-hedger-wins-in-2026/index.md)
- [Can 'Art' Labels Fool AI Detection? 48.2% Pixel Verdict](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/can-art-labels-fool-ai-detection-482-pixel-verdict/index.md)
- [Founder Autonomy Scores: 30% Lower Turnover in 2026](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/founder-autonomy-scores-30-lower-turnover-in-2026/index.md)
- [EU AI Act 2026: FLOP Thresholds, Liability & Open-Source Audits](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/eu-ai-act-2026-flop-thresholds-liability-open-source-audits/index.md)
- [2026 Apple One Hike: Family Lock-In vs. Unbundling Math](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/2026-apple-one-hike-family-lock-in-vs-unbundling-math/index.md)
- [2026: AI Companions vs. Real Friends - Rational at 30% Effort?](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/2026-ai-companions-vs-real-friends-rational-at-30-effort/index.md)
- [EU AI Act: 0.5% Credit Scoring Threshold Backed by EBA Data](https://www.judgmentcallpodcast.com/2026/08/eu-ai-act-05-credit-scoring-threshold-backed-by-eba-data/index.md)

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